Sunday, December 28, 2008

Legg Mason Value Trust LMVFX

As I approach the end of the year, I'm sure I'm not the first to go off on Bill Miller, but I have to wonder if Bill feels his fund's objective - "The investment seeks long-term growth of capital" is a bit tongue and cheek.

Seriously - is this not a complete statement of the obvious for the entire investment world? Also - could it be more nebulous?

I'll throw one more stone before I ask some questions, not about Bill's long term performance, but instead - what has he been thinking lately?

10 yr performance = -48%
5 yr performance = -53%
1 yr performance = -59%
6mo performance = -39.42%
3mo performance = -33.49%
1mo performance = 4.94%

By lately - I mean the last 3 months. I'm sure some will say he bought into what he thought was "deep value", but c'mon - you had screamers all over warning it was coming and you tanked your fund early in 2008 buying into it (it being the eye of the credit storm). But then you didn't sell - and got killed again. I guess now everyone in the fund is has assets that are classified as "value" NOW, but I think the idea would have been to buy the cheap assets when they're down and sell when they've appreciated - not the opposite!

My question is - why not sell off some stuff in 2007 when you're 5yr return had you at 40%? Wouldn't it be time for some sector rotation after a 7yr bull market? That would have saved everyone the +40 to -60% turn that ensued.

Also - "value" seems to imply good ways to invest your money - steady returns that don't chase whatever bubble seems to be bubbling...not quite fitting the bill here either Bill.

My only question now is - what do you think is going to happen to your reputation when investors actually think about putting money back to work. Do you think you're going to be their guy? Sure - if that guy is the one who laid them in front of the tracks of the latest bubble while calling the fund "value". I'm sure there will be at least one sucker. All the others will be just praying their investments come back - giving new meaning to the fund objective of "seeking long term capital appeciation".

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