Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Bottom is In - "Yep", now what?

As a follow up to my prior post - let me say Ben Bernanke made it completely clear this afternoon that the bottom is indeed in and dares us all to figure out the biggest question of all "what's next?"

Just a quick summarization of Bernanke's move - he's daring you to put money in a "safe" haven like treasuries. He knows its all there now, whether it be the you or the world at large that is hoarding into the treasuries for safety - he is using the psychology of fear to start the printing presses to effectively sell your feeling of security in the U.S. (through your demand for treasuries) when the market is high for them, to buy everything that has been crushed which explicitly will include Fannie and Freddie debt, but could include basically whatever!

So - for all you people looking to buy security through t-bills, STOP IT, YOUR LOSING MONEY! Take advantage of what the Fed is now doing to rewind the tape back to 2002! Keep in mind you've seen this movie before and so has the fed. Rates will remain low until the first sign of recovery appears. Once this happens rates will then rocket back to levels more accustomed to historical levels and perhaps higher.

For those not yet getting my drift - deny the adjustable rate option on your mortgage - find a 30yr and fast! Don't plan on euphoria forever - that is just stupid - plan for a government repayment period when the economy seems likely to handle it - that means higher taxes wherever possible.

Ok, so now that you've refinanced and you're wondering what next? Duck and cover - take advantage of balance transfer offers if they make sense, consolidate your debt as soon as possible. Do this and you'll be much better off for the next hangover which will come much quicker than the one we're in now relative to the last boom.

Now - stock you shouldn't buy if you plan to own them in a year:

Home Builders - you have to know this next affordability push won't last beyond the first steady signs of recovery. That is - there is no bright future here.

Commodities - buy now if you're aggressive - you'll get a ride. Hold for the anti U.S. inflation protection (oil), but don't expect $150 oil anytime soon. Too much government and consumer "memory" about this situation.

Banks - big yes! They're covered because they're the market maker for everything and their nemesis - homes - is going to get cleaned up in large part. Don't get greedy, get early!

Construction/Industrial - yes. This includes the cement and asphalt companies on roads etc. This also includes semi-green companies - those that have existing businesses, but also have green-ready segments. Look at AMAT.

Emerging Mkts - Yes. They win, we lose - long term. Buy them now, buy emerging market bonds (conservatively) and some indexes and you'll be happy.

Dollar - No. Buy the UDN (bear dollar index) or commodities. The beauty of anti-dollar indexes is they HAVE to do the work to move against the dollar, whereas oil could in some weird investment universe collapse with the dollar (think U.S. armageddon).

More to come here - but start with this.

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